Analysis of the most affected countries in Asia

Cross-country comparison over absolute dates

Confirmed

Dead

Daily Dead (7-Day Average)

Active

Cross-country comparison with approximately aligned start days

Confirmed

Dead

Daily Dead (7-Day Average)

Active

Per-country analysis with exponential and sigmoidal projections, and new cases analysis

IMPORTANT: The projections are only accurate if the fit is good (it often isn't), and assuming nothing changes going forward. The sigmoid is omitted if a reasonable fit can't be computed, but this still doesn't mean that the fit is good if it is shown.

The dashed lines show best fit projections from a few previous days for comparison.

Iran

Population $83,992,949$

Confirmed

Start date 2020-02-25 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)

Latest number $173,832$ on 2020-06-08

Best fit exponential: \(2.07 \times 10^{4} \times 10^{0.009t}\) (doubling rate \(33.0\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{178,421.5}{1 + 10^{-0.021 (t - 62.5)}}\) (asimptote \(178,421.5\))

Dead

Start date 2020-02-24 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)

Latest number $8,351$ on 2020-06-08

Best fit exponential: \(1.46 \times 10^{3} \times 10^{0.008t}\) (doubling rate \(38.5\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{7,740.8}{1 + 10^{-0.031 (t - 46.5)}}\) (asimptote \(7,740.8\))

Active

Start date 2020-02-27 (1st day with 1 active per million)

Latest number $29,121$ on 2020-06-08

Kuwait

Population $4,270,571$

Confirmed

Start date 2020-02-25 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)

Latest number $32,510$ on 2020-06-08

Best fit exponential: \(227 \times 10^{0.021t}\) (doubling rate \(14.2\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{39,097.5}{1 + 10^{-0.042 (t - 88.5)}}\) (asimptote \(39,097.5\))

Dead

Start date 2020-04-04 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)

Latest number $269$ on 2020-06-08

Best fit exponential: \(9.38 \times 10^{0.023t}\) (doubling rate \(13.2\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{332.2}{1 + 10^{-0.042 (t - 52.1)}}\) (asimptote \(332.2\))

Active

Start date 2020-02-25 (1st day with 1 active per million)

Latest number $10,999$ on 2020-06-08

Turkey

Population $84,339,067$

Confirmed

Start date 2020-03-18 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)

Latest number $171,121$ on 2020-06-08

Best fit exponential: \(3.59 \times 10^{4} \times 10^{0.009t}\) (doubling rate \(32.7\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{161,585.2}{1 + 10^{-0.045 (t - 33.1)}}\) (asimptote \(161,585.2\))

Dead

Start date 2020-03-21 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)

Latest number $4,711$ on 2020-06-08

Best fit exponential: \(962 \times 10^{0.010t}\) (doubling rate \(30.9\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{4,530.8}{1 + 10^{-0.046 (t - 33.1)}}\) (asimptote \(4,530.8\))

Active

Start date 2020-03-18 (1st day with 1 active per million)

Latest number $25,030$ on 2020-06-08

Israel

Population $8,655,535$

Confirmed

Start date 2020-03-01 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)

Latest number $18,032$ on 2020-06-08

Best fit exponential: \(4.02 \times 10^{3} \times 10^{0.007t}\) (doubling rate \(40.2\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{16,823.6}{1 + 10^{-0.058 (t - 37.6)}}\) (asimptote \(16,823.6\))

Dead

Start date 2020-03-21 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)

Latest number $298$ on 2020-06-08

Best fit exponential: \(76 \times 10^{0.009t}\) (doubling rate \(35.4\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{282.9}{1 + 10^{-0.049 (t - 28.3)}}\) (asimptote \(282.9\))

Active

Start date 2020-03-01 (1st day with 1 active per million)

Latest number $2,632$ on 2020-06-08

United Arab Emirates

Population $9,890,402$

Confirmed

Start date 2020-02-22 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)

Latest number $39,376$ on 2020-06-08

Best fit exponential: \(967 \times 10^{0.015t}\) (doubling rate \(19.4\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{47,140.0}{1 + 10^{-0.030 (t - 85.3)}}\) (asimptote \(47,140.0\))

Dead

Start date 2020-03-20 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)

Latest number $281$ on 2020-06-08

Best fit exponential: \(26.7 \times 10^{0.014t}\) (doubling rate \(21.8\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{276.9}{1 + 10^{-0.050 (t - 46.1)}}\) (asimptote \(276.9\))

Active

Start date 2020-02-28 (1st day with 1 active per million)

Latest number $16,820$ on 2020-06-08

Saudi Arabia

Population $34,813,871$

Confirmed

Start date 2020-03-12 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)

Latest number $105,283$ on 2020-06-08

Best fit exponential: \(3.03 \times 10^{3} \times 10^{0.018t}\) (doubling rate \(16.9\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{122,068.9}{1 + 10^{-0.034 (t - 69.5)}}\) (asimptote \(122,068.9\))

Dead

Start date 2020-03-28 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)

Latest number $746$ on 2020-06-08

Best fit exponential: \(38.9 \times 10^{0.017t}\) (doubling rate \(17.3\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{5,477.5}{1 + 10^{-0.019 (t - 117.7)}}\) (asimptote \(5,477.5\))

Active

Start date 2020-03-12 (1st day with 1 active per million)

Latest number $30,013$ on 2020-06-08

Qatar

Population $2,881,053$

Confirmed

Start date 2020-03-01 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)

Latest number $70,158$ on 2020-06-08

Best fit exponential: \(900 \times 10^{0.019t}\) (doubling rate \(15.5\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{98,800.6}{1 + 10^{-0.032 (t - 87.9)}}\) (asimptote \(98,800.6\))

Dead

Start date 2020-03-28 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)

Latest number $57$ on 2020-06-08

Best fit exponential: \(1.75 \times 10^{0.020t}\) (doubling rate \(14.7\) days)

Active

Start date 2020-03-01 (1st day with 1 active per million)

Latest number $24,166$ on 2020-06-08

Bahrain

Population $1,701,575$

Confirmed

Start date 2020-02-25 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)

Latest number $15,417$ on 2020-06-08

Best fit exponential: \(202 \times 10^{0.018t}\) (doubling rate \(16.6\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{32,237.2}{1 + 10^{-0.024 (t - 107.5)}}\) (asimptote \(32,237.2\))

Dead

Start date 2020-03-16 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)

Latest number $27$ on 2020-06-08

Best fit exponential: \(2.12 \times 10^{0.012t}\) (doubling rate \(24.8\) days)

Active

Start date 2020-02-25 (1st day with 1 active per million)

Latest number $5,064$ on 2020-06-08

Recovering countries that had over 300 active cases at peak

List of all recovering countries (the top 4 not covered above are also analyzed below)

Japan recovered 91%
Turkey recovered 69%
Georgia recovered 68%
Kuwait recovered 31%
Maldives recovered 29%
Kazakhstan recovered 6%
Tajikistan recovered 5%

Japan

Population $126,476,461$

Confirmed

Start date 2020-02-23 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)

Latest number $17,060$ on 2020-06-08

Best fit exponential: \(2.34 \times 10^{3} \times 10^{0.009t}\) (doubling rate \(32.9\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{16,721.7}{1 + 10^{-0.054 (t - 53.3)}}\) (asimptote \(16,721.7\))

Dead

Start date 2020-03-11 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)

Latest number $920$ on 2020-06-08

Best fit exponential: \(87.1 \times 10^{0.012t}\) (doubling rate \(24.2\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{961.3}{1 + 10^{-0.037 (t - 53.5)}}\) (asimptote \(961.3\))

Active

Start date 2020-02-24 (1st day with 1 active per million)

Latest number $1,097$ on 2020-06-08

Georgia

Population $3,989,167$

Confirmed

Start date 2020-03-05 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)

Latest number $812$ on 2020-06-08

Best fit exponential: \(117 \times 10^{0.010t}\) (doubling rate \(31.1\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{795.1}{1 + 10^{-0.035 (t - 48.0)}}\) (asimptote \(795.1\))

Dead

Start date 2020-04-04 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)

Latest number $13$ on 2020-06-08

Best fit exponential: \(3.73 \times 10^{0.009t}\) (doubling rate \(32.0\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{13.3}{1 + 10^{-0.040 (t - 24.8)}}\) (asimptote \(13.3\))

Active

Start date 2020-03-05 (1st day with 1 active per million)

Latest number $116$ on 2020-06-08

Maldives

Population $540,544$

Confirmed

Start date 2020-03-08 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)

Latest number $1,916$ on 2020-06-08

Best fit exponential: \(42.3 \times 10^{0.019t}\) (doubling rate \(16.1\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{2,103.1}{1 + 10^{-0.043 (t - 70.1)}}\) (asimptote \(2,103.1\))

Dead

Start date 2020-04-29 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)

Latest number $8$ on 2020-06-08

Active

Start date 2020-03-08 (1st day with 1 active per million)

Latest number $983$ on 2020-06-08

Kazakhstan

Population $18,776,707$

Confirmed

Start date 2020-03-17 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)

Latest number $12,859$ on 2020-06-08

Best fit exponential: \(535 \times 10^{0.017t}\) (doubling rate \(17.7\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{20,857.4}{1 + 10^{-0.025 (t - 75.2)}}\) (asimptote \(20,857.4\))

Dead

Start date 2020-03-20 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)

Latest number $56$ on 2020-06-08

Best fit exponential: \(6.92 \times 10^{0.011t}\) (doubling rate \(26.9\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{50.1}{1 + 10^{-0.028 (t - 43.8)}}\) (asimptote \(50.1\))

Active

Start date 2020-03-17 (1st day with 1 active per million)

Latest number $5,427$ on 2020-06-08