Cross-country comparison over absolute dates⮸
Daily Dead (7-Day Average)⮸
Cross-country comparison with approximately aligned start days⮸
Daily Dead (7-Day Average)⮸
Per-country analysis with exponential and sigmoidal projections, and new cases analysis⮸
IMPORTANT: The projections are only accurate if the fit is good (it often isn't), and assuming nothing changes
going forward. The sigmoid is omitted if a reasonable fit can't be computed, but this still doesn't mean that
the fit is good if it is shown.
The dashed lines show best fit projections from a few previous days for comparison.
Start date 2020-02-25 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)
Latest number $173,832$ on 2020-06-08
Best fit exponential: \(2.07 \times 10^{4} \times 10^{0.009t}\) (doubling rate \(33.0\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{178,421.5}{1 + 10^{-0.021 (t - 62.5)}}\) (asimptote \(178,421.5\))
Start date 2020-02-24 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)
Latest number $8,351$ on 2020-06-08
Best fit exponential: \(1.46 \times 10^{3} \times 10^{0.008t}\) (doubling rate \(38.5\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{7,740.8}{1 + 10^{-0.031 (t - 46.5)}}\) (asimptote \(7,740.8\))
Start date 2020-02-27 (1st day with 1 active per million)
Latest number $29,121$ on 2020-06-08
Start date 2020-02-25 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)
Latest number $32,510$ on 2020-06-08
Best fit exponential: \(227 \times 10^{0.021t}\) (doubling rate \(14.2\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{39,097.5}{1 + 10^{-0.042 (t - 88.5)}}\) (asimptote \(39,097.5\))
Start date 2020-04-04 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)
Latest number $269$ on 2020-06-08
Best fit exponential: \(9.38 \times 10^{0.023t}\) (doubling rate \(13.2\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{332.2}{1 + 10^{-0.042 (t - 52.1)}}\) (asimptote \(332.2\))
Start date 2020-02-25 (1st day with 1 active per million)
Latest number $10,999$ on 2020-06-08
Start date 2020-03-18 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)
Latest number $171,121$ on 2020-06-08
Best fit exponential: \(3.59 \times 10^{4} \times 10^{0.009t}\) (doubling rate \(32.7\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{161,585.2}{1 + 10^{-0.045 (t - 33.1)}}\) (asimptote \(161,585.2\))
Start date 2020-03-21 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)
Latest number $4,711$ on 2020-06-08
Best fit exponential: \(962 \times 10^{0.010t}\) (doubling rate \(30.9\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{4,530.8}{1 + 10^{-0.046 (t - 33.1)}}\) (asimptote \(4,530.8\))
Start date 2020-03-18 (1st day with 1 active per million)
Latest number $25,030$ on 2020-06-08
Start date 2020-03-01 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)
Latest number $18,032$ on 2020-06-08
Best fit exponential: \(4.02 \times 10^{3} \times 10^{0.007t}\) (doubling rate \(40.2\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{16,823.6}{1 + 10^{-0.058 (t - 37.6)}}\) (asimptote \(16,823.6\))
Start date 2020-03-21 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)
Latest number $298$ on 2020-06-08
Best fit exponential: \(76 \times 10^{0.009t}\) (doubling rate \(35.4\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{282.9}{1 + 10^{-0.049 (t - 28.3)}}\) (asimptote \(282.9\))
Start date 2020-03-01 (1st day with 1 active per million)
Latest number $2,632$ on 2020-06-08
Start date 2020-02-22 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)
Latest number $39,376$ on 2020-06-08
Best fit exponential: \(967 \times 10^{0.015t}\) (doubling rate \(19.4\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{47,140.0}{1 + 10^{-0.030 (t - 85.3)}}\) (asimptote \(47,140.0\))
Start date 2020-03-20 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)
Latest number $281$ on 2020-06-08
Best fit exponential: \(26.7 \times 10^{0.014t}\) (doubling rate \(21.8\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{276.9}{1 + 10^{-0.050 (t - 46.1)}}\) (asimptote \(276.9\))
Start date 2020-02-28 (1st day with 1 active per million)
Latest number $16,820$ on 2020-06-08
Start date 2020-03-12 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)
Latest number $105,283$ on 2020-06-08
Best fit exponential: \(3.03 \times 10^{3} \times 10^{0.018t}\) (doubling rate \(16.9\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{122,068.9}{1 + 10^{-0.034 (t - 69.5)}}\) (asimptote \(122,068.9\))
Start date 2020-03-28 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)
Latest number $746$ on 2020-06-08
Best fit exponential: \(38.9 \times 10^{0.017t}\) (doubling rate \(17.3\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{5,477.5}{1 + 10^{-0.019 (t - 117.7)}}\) (asimptote \(5,477.5\))
Start date 2020-03-12 (1st day with 1 active per million)
Latest number $30,013$ on 2020-06-08
Start date 2020-03-01 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)
Latest number $70,158$ on 2020-06-08
Best fit exponential: \(900 \times 10^{0.019t}\) (doubling rate \(15.5\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{98,800.6}{1 + 10^{-0.032 (t - 87.9)}}\) (asimptote \(98,800.6\))
Start date 2020-03-28 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)
Latest number $57$ on 2020-06-08
Best fit exponential: \(1.75 \times 10^{0.020t}\) (doubling rate \(14.7\) days)
Start date 2020-03-01 (1st day with 1 active per million)
Latest number $24,166$ on 2020-06-08
Start date 2020-02-25 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)
Latest number $15,417$ on 2020-06-08
Best fit exponential: \(202 \times 10^{0.018t}\) (doubling rate \(16.6\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{32,237.2}{1 + 10^{-0.024 (t - 107.5)}}\) (asimptote \(32,237.2\))
Start date 2020-03-16 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)
Latest number $27$ on 2020-06-08
Best fit exponential: \(2.12 \times 10^{0.012t}\) (doubling rate \(24.8\) days)
Start date 2020-02-25 (1st day with 1 active per million)
Latest number $5,064$ on 2020-06-08
